Fibonacci Ghost CloudHello my nocturnal minions.... This is your dark knight in the crypto light.... your alpha and omega, your crypto king reigning wisdom down from my gilded throne of code!
Enjoy the spooky Fibonacci Ghost Cloud. Shadows of previous Fibonacci look-back levels provide possible entries, stop losses, and take profit levels for intrepid crypto travelers.
DESCRIPTION
This indicator is front weighted by using the Fibonacci integer sequence..... 2,3,5,8,13. Each green and red "ghost" is a reflection of the highest highs and lowest lows of a given FIB lookback. The guide lines, red and green, are averages of the highs (green) and the lows (red).
USAGE
The "ghosts" can be used as possible support and resistance levels. They diminish in intensity (they become more transparent) as these ghosts move back further in time. When multiple greens overlap it is an indicator of a lot of recent price action at that level. The same is true of overlapping red.
In addition, the amount of ghosts above and/or below are indicative of recent price action taking place at a higher or a lower level
CURRENT PRICE IS LOWER THAN RECENT PA - There will be many green ghosts above, but few or no red ghosts below.
CURRENT PRICE IS HIGHER THAN RECENT PA- There will be many red ghosts below, but few or no green above
TAKE PROFIT - Possible take profit targets could be on the approach to a previous green level
STOP LOSS - Possible stop losses could be at lower red level
Like Bollinger bands, the green and red "average" lines can help to indicate that a security is oversold or underbought according to how close it is to a recent average. Nearing the red line can indicate that the security is oversold - and the converse is also true.
DERIVATIONS
Within the code is additional greyed-out lines which could be activated allowing you to target the open or close, instead of the High-Low - the current settings
SETTINGS:
You can change the FIB levels and substitute your own integer sequence to use as the lookback.
Feel free to offer feedback and/or suggest features you would like to have added.
Search in scripts for "stop loss"
XABCD Harmonic Pattern Custom Range Interactive█ OVERVIEW
This indicator was designed based on Harmonic Pattern Book written by Scott Carney. It was simplified to user who may always used tools such as XABCD Pattern and Long Position / Short Position, which consume a lot of time, recommended for both beginner and expert of Harmonic Pattern Traders. XABCD Pattern require tool usage of Magnet tool either Strong Magnet, Week Magnet or none, which cause error or human mistake especially daily practice.
Simplified Guideline by sequence for Harmonic Pattern if using manual tools :
Step 1 : Trade Identification - XABCD Pattern
Step 2 : Trade Execution - Any manual tools of your choice
Step 3 : Trade Management - Position / Short Position
█ INSPIRATION
Inspired by design, code and usage of CAGR. Basic usage of custom range / interactive, pretty much explained here . Credits to TradingView.
I use a lot of XABCD Pattern and Long Position / Short Position, require 5 to 10 minutes on average, upon determine the validity of harmonic pattern.
Upon creating this indicator, I believed that time can be reduced, gain more confidence, reduce error during drawing XABCD, which helps most of harmonic pattern users.
█ FEATURES
Table can positioned by any postion and font size can be resized.
Table can be display through optimized display or manual control.
Validility of harmonic pattern depends on BC ratio.
Harmonic pattern can be displayed fully or optimized while showing BC ratio validity.
Trade Execution at point D can be displayed on / off.
Stop Loss and Take Profit can be calculated automatically or manually.
Optimized table display based extend line setup and profit and loss setup.
Execution zone can be offset to Point C, by default using Point D.
Currency can be show or hide.
Profit and Loss can be displayed on axis once line is extended.
█ HOW TO USE
Step 1 : Trade Identification - Draw points from Point X to Point C. Dont worry about magnet, point will attached depends on High or Low of the candle.
Step 2 : Trade Execution - Check the validity of BC to determine the validity of harmonic pattern generated. Pattern only generate 1 pattern upon success. Otherwise, redraw to other points.
Step 3 : Trade Management - Determine the current candle either reach Point D or Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). Check for Profit & Loss once reach PRZ.
█ USAGE LIMITATIONS
Harmonic Patterns only limits to patterns mentioned in Harmonic Trading Volume 3 due to other pattern may have other or different philosophy.
Only can be used for Daily timeframe and below due to bar_time is based on minutes by default.
Not recommended for Weekly and Monthly timeframe.
If Point X, A, B, C and D is next to each other, it is recommend to use lower timeframe.
Automated alert is not supported for this release. However, alert can be done manually. Alert will updated on the version.
█ PINE SCRIPT LIMITATIONS
Known bug for when calculate time in array, causing label may not appeared or offset.
Unable to convert to library due to usage of array.get(). I prefer usage for a combination of array.get(id, 0), array.get(id, 1), array.get(id, 2) into custom function, however I faced this issue during make arrays of label. Index can be simply refered as int, for id, i not sure, already try id refered as simple, nothing happens.
linefill.new() will appeared as diamond box if overused.
Text in box.new() unable to use ternary condition or switch to change color. Bgcolor also affected.
Label display is larger than XABCD tool. Hopefully in future, have function to resize label similar to XABCD tools.
█ IMPORTANTS
Trade Management (Profit & Loss) is calculated from Point A to D.
Take Profit is calculated based on ratio 0.382 and 0.618 of Point A to D.
Always check BC validity before proceed to Trade Management.
Length of XABCD is equal to XAB plus BCD, where XAB and BCD are one to one ratio. Length is measured in time.
Use other oscillator to countercheck. Normally use built-in Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Divergence Indicator to determine starting point of Point X and A.
█ HARMONIC PATTERNS SUPPORTED
// Credits to Scott M Carney, author of Harmonic Trading Volume 3: Reaction vs. Reversal
Alt Bat - Page 101
Bat - Page 98
Crab - Page 104
Gartley - Page 92
Butterfly - Page 113
Deep Crab - Page 107
Shark - Page 119 - 220
█ FAQ
Pattern such as 5-0, perfect XABCD and ABCD that not included, will updated on either next version or new release.
Point D time is for approximation only, not including holidays and extended session.
Basic explaination for Harmonic Trading System (Trade Identification, Trade Execution and Trade Management).
Harmonic Patterns values is pretty much summarized here including Stop Loss.
Basic explanation for Alt Bat, Bat, Crab, Gartley, Deep Crab and Butterfly.
█ USAGE / TIPS EXAMPLES (Description explained in each image)
Supertrend StrategyThis Supertrend strategy will allow you to enter a long or short from a supertrend trend change. Both ATR period and ATR multiplier are adjustable. If you check off "Change ATR Calculation Method" it will base the calculation off the sma and give you slightly different results, which may work better depending on the asset. Be sure to enter slippage and commission into the properties to give you realistic results.
I've also built in backtesting date ranges and the ability to trade only within certain times of day and have it close all trades at the end of that time frame. This is especially useful for day trading stocks. If you check off "Enter First Trade ASAP" then when using the time frame option it will enter the current trade. If however you uncheck that box and instead check off "Wait To Enter First Trade" it will wait for the trend to change and then enter.
You can also specify a % based take profit and stop loss. In most cases the stop loss is not needed because of the atr based stop that supertrend provides so you could check only take profit and see if it works best to take profit or to let supertrend trend change get you out. Also keep in mind that if you have "Enter First Trade ASAP" checked off and use the stop loss and/or take profit then it will re-enter the current trend again.
Finally there's custom alert fields so you can send custom alert messages for strategy entry and exit for use with automated trading services. Simply enter your messages in the fields within the strategy properties and then put {{strategy.order.alert_message}} in your alert message body and it will dynamically pull in the appropriate message.
Take Profit On Trend (by BHD_Trade_Bot)The purpose of strategy is to detect long-term uptrend and short-term downtrend so that you can easy to take profit.
The strategy also using BHD unit to detect how big you win and lose, so that you can use this strategy for all coins without worry about it have different percentage of price change.
ENTRY
The buy order is placed on assets that have long-term uptrend and short-term downtrend:
- Long-term uptrend condition: ema200 is going up (rsi200 greater than 51)
- Short-term downtrend condition: 2 last candles are down price (use candlestick for less delay)
CLOSE
The sell order is placed when take profit or stop loss:
- Take profit: price increase 1 BHD unit
- Stop loss: price decrease 2 BHD units
The strategy use $15 and trading fee is 0.1% for each order. So that, in the real-life, if you are using trade bot, it will need $1500 for trading 100 coins at the same time.
Pro tip : The 1-hour time frame for altcoin/USDT has the best results on average.
Zendog V2 backtest DCA bot 3commasHi everyone,
After a few iterations and additional implemented features this version of the Backtester is now open source.
The Strategy is a Backtester for 3commas DCA bots. The main usage scenario is to plugin your external indicator, and backtest it using different DCA settings.
Before using this script please make sure you read these explanations and make sure you understand how it works.
Features:
- Because of Tradingview limitations on how orders are grouped into Trades, this Strategy statistics are calculated by the script, so please ignore the Strategy Tester statistics completely
Statistics Table explained:
- Status: either all deals are closed or there is a deal still running, in which case additional info
is provided below, as when the deal started, current PnL, current SO
- Finished deals: Total number of closed deals both Winning and Losing.
A deal is comprised as the Base Order (BO) + all Safety Orders (SO) related to that deal, so this number
will be different than the Strategy Tester List of Trades
- Winning Deals: Deal ended in profit
- Losing deals: Deals ended with loss due to Stop Loss. In the future I might add a Deal Stop condition to
the script, so that will count towards this number as well.
- Total days ( Max / Avg days in Deal ):
Total Days in the Backtest given by either Tradingview limitation on the number of candles or by the
config of the script regarding "Limit Date Range".
Max Days spent in a deal + which period this happened.
Avg days spent in a deal.
- Required capital: This is the total capital required to run the Backtester and it is automatically calculated by
the script taking into consideration BO size, SO size, SO volume scale. This should be the same as 3commas.
This number overwrites strategy.initial_capital and is used to calculate Profit and other stats, so you don't need
to update strategy.initial_capital every time you change BO/SO settings
- Profit after commission
- Buy and Hold return: The PnL that could have been obtained by buying at the close of the first candle of the
backtester and selling at the last.
- Covered deviation: The % of price move from initial BO order covered by SO settings
- Max Deviation: Biggest market % price move vs BO price, in the other direction (for long
is down, for short it is up)
- Max Drawdown: Biggest market % price move vs Avg price of the whole Trade (BO + any SO), in the other
direction (for long price goes down, for short it goes up)
This is calculated for the whole Trade so it is different than List of Trades
- Max / Avg bars in deal
- Total volume / Commission calculated by the strategy. For correct commission please set Commission in the
Inputs Tab and you may ignore Properties Tab
- Close stats for deals: This is a list of how many Trades were closed at each step, including Stop Loss (if
configured), together with covered deviation for that step, the number of deals, and the percentage of this
number from all the deals
TODO: Might add deal avg value for each step
- Settings Table that can be enabled / disabled just to have an overview of your configs on the chart, this is a
drawn on bottom left
- Steps Table similar to 3commas, this is also drawn on bottom left, so please disable Settings table if you want
to see this one
TODO: Might add extra stats here
- Deal start condition: built in RSI-7 or plugin any external indicator and compare with any value the indicator plots
(main purpose of this strategy is to connect your own studies, so using external indicator is recommended)
- Base order and safety orders configs similar to 3commas (order size, percent deviation, safety orders,
percent scale and volume scale)
- Long and Short
- Stop Loss
- Support for Take profit from base order or from Total volume of the deal
- Configs help (besides self explanatory):
- Chart theme: Adjust according to the theme you run on. There is no way to detect theme at the moment.
This adjust different colors
- Deal Start Type: Either a builtin RSI7 or "External indicator"
- Indicator Source an value: If using External Indicator then select source, comparison and value.
For example you could start a deal when Volume is greater than xxxx, or code a custom indicator that plots
different values based on your conditions and test those values
- Visuals / Decimals for display: Adjust according to your symbol
- BO Entry Price for steps table: This is the BO start deal price used to calculate the steps in the table
M8 BUY @ END OF DAYI've read a couple of times at a couple of different places that most of the move in the market happens after hours, meaning during non-standard trading hours.
After-market and pre-market hours and have seen data presented showing that systems which bought just before end normal market hours and sold the next morning had really amazing resutls.
But when testing those I found the results to be quite poor compared to the pretty graphs I saw, and after much tweaking and trying different ideas I gave up on the idea until I recently decided to try a new position management system.
The System
Buys at the end of the trading day before the close
Sells the next morning at the open IF THE CLOSE OF THE CURRENT BAR IS HIGHER THAN THE ENTRY PRICE
When the current price is not higher, the system will keep the position open until it EITHER gets stops out or closes on profit <<< this is WHY it has the high win %
The system has a high win ratio because it will keep that one position open until it either reaches profit or stops out
This "system" of waiting, and keeping the trade open, actually turned out to be a fantastic way to kind of put the complete trading strategy in a kind of limbo mode. It either waits for market failure or for a profit.
I don't really care about win % at all, almost always high win % ratio systems are just nonsense. What I look for is a PF -- profit factor of 1.5 or above, and a relatively smooth equity curve. -- This has both.
The Stop Loss setting is set @ .95, meaning a 5% stop loss. The Red Line on the chart is the stop loss line.
There is no set profit target -- it simply takes what the market gives.
Non-Repainting System
This does use a 200D Simple Moving Average as a filter. Like a Green Light / Red Light traffic light, the system will only trade long when the price is above its 200 Moving average.
Here is the code: "F1 = close > sma(security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", close ), MarketFilterLen) // HIGH OF OLD DATA -- SO NO REPAINTING"
I use "close ", so that's data from two days ago, it's fixed, confirmed, non-repainting data from the higher timeframe.
-- I would only suggest using this on direction tickers like SPY, QQQ, SSO, TQQQ, market sectors with additional filters in place.
Average Band by HarmanUsually, Moving Averages (Simple & Exponential) consider "close" of each candle to form a line for a particular period. In this indicator, we have considered all the parameters (Open, Close, Low & High) of each candle to form a Band or a wave which act as a zone to provide support & resistance. It works well on all the time frames. It perfectly works on lower time frames of 15 min & 5 min for intraday trades and even for scalping. There is a line that moves very near to candles known as "Candle Line" provide support & resistance to each individual candle and a leading line which moves ahead also acts as support & resistance and helps in determining trend direction.
How to use the indicator ?
Indicator consists of 3 components :
1) A Band or wave of 3 lines (upper, middle & lower line)
2) A "Candle Line" which moves along with the candles
3) A Leading line which moves ahead of the candles
Method 1 : When candles are being formed above the candle line (line near to candles) and it crosses the band or wave from below to upside, then long trade can be initiated. Similarly, When candles are being formed below the Candle line and it crosses the band or wave from upside then short trade can be initiated. Stop loss can be maintained below the band for Long trade and above the band for short trade. Candle line can be used to trail the stop loss.
Method 2: If candles moves above and below of the band very often and frequently and candle line is in the middle of candles then it is NO TRADING ZONE. If you still want to trade, then select a higher time frame and check the price movement. If there is a stability in the higher time frame, then take the trade in the higher timeframe with stable movement.
Method 3 : Candle line acts as "First line of Defence". In a uptrend, all the candles are formed above the candle line and in case of down trend, all the candles are formed below the candle line. When a newly formed candle cross the candle line then you can book profit. For Example : In uptrend , candles are being formed above the line, when a new candle started forming below the line and when the complete candle is formed below the line, profit can be booked. Vice-versa in case of downtrend.
Method 4: Direction of leading line, band and candle line helps in determining the trend. If all these three components are in upward direction, price trend is upward and if all these three components are in downward direction, then price trend is downward. When, leading line and band cross each other from opposite direction for consecutive 2-3 times, then price movement is sideways.
Method 5 : Thickness of band play an important role in determining price action. If band is narrow, it means small candles are being formed and no any huge price movement is observed in this period. When band started expanding, it signifies that big candles are begin to form and there is a more price movement than before. Similarly, If contraction of band started, it means that small candles are being formed and there is low price movement as compared to the price movement when Band was expanded. If Band is expanded (wider) and volumes are high, It means the Band will act as strong Support or Resistance than usual. In case, candles and candle line cross the expanded Band, you can enter the Long or Short trade.
Method 6: When the Band, leading line and candle line collides or meet at a single point, then it is either strong support or resistance.
Method 7 : Usage in Scalping : Select the shorter time frame of 1 min or 5 min. If the candles are crossing the band very frequently in 1 min, then select 5 min time frame or wait for few minutes for stability. Now, when candles started forming above the candle line and it crosses the band from below then take a long position and book profit after few candles above the band. Place stop loss below the Band. Similarly, when candles started forming below the candle line and it crosses the band from above, then enter into short trade and book profit after few candles. Place stop loss above the band in the case of short trade.
You can combine above methods to give a sharp edge to your trade and increase the probability of your winning in the trade.
Indicator Settings : Default period selected is 50 for both the Band and leading line. You can change the period to 26 or 100 or 200. Select the period and check the chart, if the indicator looks fine and smooth, then you can use your settings. For most of the time, default settings work perfectly.
Proudly Developed by :
Harmandeep Singh
Graduate in Computer Science with Physics & Mathematics
MBA in Business Marketing and Finance
Experienced Computer programmer & Software developer
Stock Market & Crypto Trader
Ultimate Strategy TemplateHello Traders
As most of you know, I'm a member of the PineCoders community and I sometimes take freelance pine coding jobs for TradingView users.
Off the top of my head, users often want to:
- convert an indicator into a strategy, so as to get the backtesting statistics from TradingView
- add alerts to their indicator/strategy
- develop a generic strategy template which can be plugged into (almost) any indicator
My gift for the community today is my Ultimate Strategy Template
Step 1: Create your connector
Adapt your indicator with only 2 lines of code and then connect it to this strategy template.
For doing so:
1) Find in your indicator where are the conditions printing the long/buy and short/sell signals.
2) Create an additional plot as below
I'm giving an example with a Two moving averages cross.
Please replicate the same methodology for your indicator wether it's a MACD, ZigZag, Pivots, higher-highs, lower-lows or whatever indicator with clear buy and sell conditions
//@version=4
study(title='Moving Average Cross', shorttitle='Moving Average Cross', overlay=true, precision=6, max_labels_count=500, max_lines_count=500)
type_ma1 = input(title="MA1 type", defval="SMA", options= )
length_ma1 = input(10, title = " MA1 length", type=input.integer)
type_ma2 = input(title="MA2 type", defval="SMA", options= )
length_ma2 = input(100, title = " MA2 length", type=input.integer)
// MA
f_ma(smoothing, src, length) =>
iff(smoothing == "RMA", rma(src, length),
iff(smoothing == "SMA", sma(src, length),
iff(smoothing == "EMA", ema(src, length), src)))
MA1 = f_ma(type_ma1, close, length_ma1)
MA2 = f_ma(type_ma2, close, length_ma2)
// buy and sell conditions
buy = crossover(MA1, MA2)
sell = crossunder(MA1, MA2)
plot(MA1, color=color_ma1, title="Plot MA1", linewidth=3)
plot(MA2, color=color_ma2, title="Plot MA2", linewidth=3)
plotshape(buy, title='LONG SIGNAL', style=shape.circle, location=location.belowbar, color=color_ma1, size=size.normal)
plotshape(sell, title='SHORT SIGNAL', style=shape.circle, location=location.abovebar, color=color_ma2, size=size.normal)
/////////////////////////// SIGNAL FOR STRATEGY /////////////////////////
Signal = buy ? 1 : sell ? -1 : 0
plot(Signal, title="🔌Connector🔌", transp=100)
Basically, I identified my buy, sell conditions in the code and added this at the bottom of my indicator code
Signal = buy ? 1 : sell ? -1 : 0
plot(Signal, title="🔌Connector🔌", transp=100)
Important Notes
🔥 The Strategy Template expects the value to be exactly 1 for the bullish signal , and -1 for the bearish signal
Now you can connect your indicator to the Strategy Template using the method below or that one
Step 2: Connect the connector
1) Add your updated indicator to a TradingView chart
2) Add the Strategy Template as well to the SAME chart
3) Open the Strategy Template settings and in the Data Source field select your 🔌Connector🔌 (which comes from your indicator)
From then, you should start seeing the signals and plenty of other stuff on your chart
🔥 Note that whenever you'll update your indicator values, the strategy statistics and visual on your chart will update in real-time
Settings
- Color Candles : Color the candles based on the trade state (bullish, bearish, neutral)
- Close positions at market at the end of each session : useful for everything but cryptocurrencies
- Session time ranges : Take the signals from a starting time to an ending time
- Close Direction : Choose to close only the longs, shorts, or both
- Date Filter : Take the signals from a starting date to an ending date
- Set the maximum losing streak length with an input
- Set the maximum winning streak length with an input
- Set the maximum consecutive days with a loss
- Set the maximum drawdown (in % of strategy equity)
- Set the maximum intraday loss in percentage
- Limit the number of trades per day
- Limit the number of trades per week
- Stop-loss: None or Percentage or Trailing Stop Percentage or ATR
- Take-Profit: None or Percentage or ATR
- Risk-Reward based on ATR multiple for the Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
This script is open-source so feel free to use it, and optimize it as you want
Alerts
Maybe you didn't know it but alerts are available on strategy scripts.
I added them in this template - that's cool because:
- if you don't know how to code, now you can connect your indicator and get alerts
- you have now a cool template showing you how to create alerts for strategy scripts
Source: www.tradingview.com
I hope you'll like it, use it, optimize it and most importantly....make some optimizations to your indicators thanks to this Strategy template
Special Thanks
Special thanks to @JosKodify as I borrowed a few risk management snippets from his website: kodify.net
Additional features
I thought of plenty of extra filters that I'll add later on this week on this strategy template
Best
Dave
Turtle Trade Channels Indicator TUTCILegendary trade system which proved that great traders can be made, not born.
Turtle Trade Experiment made 80% annual return for 4 years and made 150 million $
Turtle Trade trend following system is a complete opposite to the "buy low and sell high" approach.
This trend following system was taught to a group of average and normal individuals, and almost everyone turned into a profitable trader.
They used the basis logic of well known DONCHIAN CHANNELS which developed by Richard Donchian.
The main rule is "Trade an 20-day breakout and take profits when an 10-day high or low is breached ". Examples:
Buy a 20-day breakout and close the trade when price action reaches a 10-day low.
Go short a 20-day breakout and close the trade when price action reaches a 10-day high.
In this indicator,
The red line is the trading line which indicates the trend directio n:
Price bars over the trend line indicates uptrend
Price bars under the trend line means downtrend
The dotted blue line is the exit line.
Original system is:
Go long when the price High is equal to or above previous 20 day Highest price.
Go short when the price Low is equal to or below previous 20 day Lowest price.
Exit long positions when the price touches the exit line
Exit short positions when the price touches the exit line
Recommended initial stop-loss is ATR * 2 from the opening price.
Default system parameters were 20,10 and 55,20.
Original Turtle Rules:
To trade exactly like the turtles did, you need to set up two indicators representing the main and the failsafe system.
Set up the main indicator with EntryPeriod = 20 and ExitPeriod = 10 (A.k.a S1)
Set up the failsafe indicator with EntryPeriod = 55 and ExitPeriod = 20 using a different color. (A.k.a S2)
The entry strategy using S1 is as follows
Buy 20-day breakouts using S1 only if last signaled trade was a loss.
Sell 20-day breakouts using S1 only if last signaled trade was a loss.
If last signaled trade by S1 was a win, you shouldn't trade -Irregardless of the direction or if you traded last signal it or not-
The entry strategy using S2 is as follows:
Buy 55-day breakouts only if you ignored last S1 signal and the market is rallying without you
Sell 55-day breakouts only if you ignored last S1 signal and the market is pluging without you
You can Highlight the chart with provided trade signals:
Green background color when Long
Red background color when Short
No background color when flat
WARNING: TURTLE TRADE STOP or ADDING more UNITS RULES ARE NOT INCLUDED.
Author: Kıvanç Özbilgiç
Also you can show or hide trade signals with the button on the settings menu
Probability of ATR Index [racer8]Deriving the indicator:
PAI is an indicator I created that tells you the probability of current price moving a specified ATR distance over a specified number of periods into the future. It takes into account 4 variables: the ATR & the standard deviation of price, and the 2 parameters: ATR distance and # bars (time).
The formula is very complex so I will not be able to explain it without confusion arising.
What I can say is that I used integral calculus & the Taylor series to derive a formula that calculates the area under half of the normal distribution function. Thus, the formula was repeated twice in the code to derive the full probability (half + half = whole). If you can read the code, you might be wondering why the formula is so long...
The reason for this is because in Pine Script, the erf function doesn't exist. You see, the formula for normal distribution is: f(x) = (1/sqrt(2pi))*e^(-xx/2), assuming of course that the standard deviation = 1 and mu (mean) = 1. The next step is to take the integral of this formula in order to find the area under f(x). The problem is that I found the integral, F(x), of the normal distribution formula to be equal to F(x) = erf(x/sqrt(2))/2...and the erf function cannot be directly computed into Pinescript.
So I developed a solution...why not estimate the integral function? So that's exactly what I did using a technique involving the Taylor series. The Taylor series is an algebraic function that allows you to create a new function that can estimate the existing function. On a graph, the new function has the same values as the existing one, the only difference is that it uses a differnt formula, in this case, a formula that makes it possible to compute the integral. The disadvantage of using this new formula is that it is super long and if you want it to better represent the original integral over a wider range of x-values, you have to make it longer.
Signal Interpretion:
The hotter the colour, the more likely price will reach your specified distance.
The 2 values of PAI in the bottom window represent probability & average probability of your specifed distance geting hit.
Applications:
Stop loss placement---
This indicator is useful because it gives you an idea of the likelihood that a stop loss at a particular distance away from price (in ATRs) will be hit over a period of time specified. This is helpful in placing stop losses.
Options trading---
PAI can also be used in options trading. For example, you are using a strangle options strategy, and you want to make sure that price stays within the Strangle's profit range. So you only trade when PAI presents a low probability value of moving at a particular distance in ATRs over n periods.
Anyhow, I hope you guys like it. Enjoy! and hit that like button for me :)
mForex - Bollinger Bands - Pinbar scalping systemTransaction setup parameters
Time frame: M5, M15
Currency pair: Any except XAU/USD
Trading strategies
=== BUY ===
Price break out of the lower Bollinger Bands
The Pinbar reversal candlestick appears and closes the candle on the lower Bollinger Bands
Stop loss: Nearest bottom + 3-5 pips
Profit target: 10-20 pips
=== SELL ===
Price break out of the upper Bollinger Bands
The Pinbar reversal candle appeared and closed below the upper
Stop loss: Nearest peak + 3-5 pips
Profit target: 10-20 pips
* If you have any questions or suggestions for this strategy, feel free to ask us.
Noro's RiskChannel StrategyIndicator
The Donchian price channel is used. There are 2 methods available to close the position. The user can choose a method.
Wikipedia: en.wikipedia.org
Strategy #1 (stop-loss type = channel)
Old classic trading strategy, using breakouts of the Donchan price channel.
If the price is above the price channel top line, open the long position (and close the short position)
If the price is below the lower line of the price channel, open the short position (and close the long position)
It is recommended that you all use market stop orders.
Strategy #2 (stop-loss type = center)
This metod is better. This method is recommended.
The central line (red) is the middle of the Donchian price channel. Used to close any positions.
If the price is higher than the price channel top line, open the long position.
If the price is lower than the lower line of the price channel, open the short position.
If the price has crossed the central line of the channel, close any position.
It is recommended that you all use market stop orders.
Risk
There are 2 options. Risk for long positions and risk for short positions. This is the size of the possible loss. Order size depends on the possible loss and is calculated for each position.
For
BTC/USD, BTC/USDT, XBT/USD, ETH/USD, ETH/USD (need USD!)
Timeframes: 1h and length of price channel = 50 bars or 4h and length of price channel = 12
RSI and Smoothed RSI Bull Div Strategy [BigBitsIO]This strategy focuses on finding a low RSI value, then targeting a low Smoothed RSI value while the price is below the low RSI in the lookback period to trigger a buy signal.
Features Take Profit, Stop Loss, and Plot Target inputs. As well as many inputs to manage how the RSI and Smoothed RSI are configured within the strategy.
Explanation of all the inputs
Take Profit %: % change in price from position entry where strategy takes profit
Stop Loss %: % change in price from position entry where strategy stops losses
RSI Lookback Period: # of candles used to calculate RSI
Buy Below Lowest Low In RSI Divergence Lookback Target %: % change in price from lowest RSI candle in divergence lookback if set
Source of Buy Below Target Price: Source of price (close, open, high, low, etc..) used to calculated buy below %
Smoothed RSI Lookback Period: # of candles used to calculate RSI
RSI Currently Below: Value the current RSI must be below to trigger a buy
RSI Divergence Lookback Period: # of candles used to lookback for lowest RSI in the divergence lookback period
RSI Lowest In Divergence Lookback Currently Below: Require the lowest RSI in the divergence lookback to be below this value
RSI Sell Above: If take profit or stop loss is not hit, the position will sell when RSI rises above this value
Minimum SRSI Downtrend Length: Require that the downtrend length of the SRSI be this value or higher to trigger a buy
Smoothed RSI Currently Below: Value the current SRSI must be below to trigger a buy
Hancock - Pump Catcher [BitMEX] [Alerts]This is a study to the version of the strategy found here .
It generates 3 alerts:
CLOSE - Triggers to close all open positions
LONG - Triggers to open a long position
SHORT - Triggers to open a short position
Commands for alerts (without stop-loss) to get you started:
CLOSE - a=bitmex e=bitmextestnet c=position t=market
LONG - a=bitmex e=bitmextestnet b=long s=xbtusd l=5 q=99% t=market
SHORT - a=bitmex e=bitmextestnet b=short s=xbtusd l=5 q=99% t=market
I would advise including a stop-loss with your commands. These commands are for autoview and don't include a stop loss, use autoview command documentation to add stop-loss.
Happy trading
Hancock
SSL Channel BFSSL Channel Close is a great all-rounder based on 2 Simple Moving Averages, one of recent Highs, one of recent Lows.
The calculation prints a channel on the chart consisting of 2 lines.
This strategy gives a Long signal when price closes above the top of these 2 lines and a Short signal when it closes below the bottom.
Trading in choppy sideways markets can compound losses so we avoid that here by using recent ATR to determine relative volatility and refrain from trading when the background is White.
We use a basic 3% stop loss.
Charted on XBT/USD Bitmex Daily chart.
INSTRUCTIONS
Green = long
Red = short
White Background= No trade
The way I have set this strategy up is that if we get stopped out but we are still in a green or red background, we re-enter. Closing the trade only occurs on an opposing signal or if we get stopped out.
Chandelier Exit V2 by fr3762 KIVANÇChandelier Exit Version 2 with two lines Long Stop and Short Stop
There is a Chandelier exit for long positions and one for short positions. The Chandelier Exit (long) hangs three ATR values below the 22-period high. This means it rises and falls as the period high and the ATR value changes. The Chandelier Exit for short positions is placed three ATR values above the 22-period low. The spreadsheet examples show sample calculations for both.
According to the theory, traders should exit long positions at either the highest high since entry minus 3 ATRs .
Similarly traders should exit short positions at either the lowest low since entry plus 3 ATRs .
Developed by Charles Le Beau and featured in Alexander Elder's books, the Chandelier Exit sets a trailing stop-loss based on the Average True Range (ATR). The indicator is designed to keep traders in a trend and prevent an early exit as long as the trend extends. Typically, the Chandelier Exit will be above prices during a downtrend and below prices during an uptrend.
The author, Chuck LeBeau explains: It lets "... profits run in the direction of a trend while still offering some protection against any reversal in trend."
The exit stop is placed at a multiple of average true ranges from the highest high or highest close since the entry of the trade.
Chandelier Exit will rise instantly whenever new highs are reached. As the highs get higher the stop moves up but it never moves downward.
The Chandelier Exit is mostly used to set a trailing stop-loss during a trend. Trends sometimes extend further than we anticipate and the Chandelier Exit can help traders ride the trend a little longer. Even though it is mostly used for stop-losses, the Chandelier Exit can also be used as a trend tool. A break above the Chandelier Exit (long) signals strength, while a break below the Chandelier Exit (short) signals weakness. Once a new trend begins, chartists can then use the corresponding Chandelier Exit to help define this trend.
Developer: Charles Le Beau
Here's the link to a complete list of all my indicators:
tr.tradingview.com
Şimdiye kadar paylaştığım indikatörlerin tam listesi için: tr.tradingview.com
Forex Master (EUR/USD)ATTENTION:
This is a symmetrical algorithm designed only for trading EUR/USD on the 1h time frame. For other currency pairs and time frames, you need to re-calibrate the RSI-EMAs as well as the profit targets and stop losses.
BACKTEST CONDITIONS:
Initial equity = $100,000 (no leverage)
Order size = 100% of equity
Pyramiding = disabled
TRADING RULES:
Long entry = EMA20(RSI10) cross> 50
Profit limit = 50 pips
Stop loss = 50 pips
Short entry = EMA30(RSI30) cross< 50
Profit limit = 50 pips
Stop loss = 50 pips
Long entry = Short exit
Short entry = long exit
DISCLAIMER: None of my ideas and posts are investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This strategy was constructed with the benefit of hindsight and its future performance cannot be guaranteed.
COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
Darvas Lines/Box1. Overview
The Darvas Lines/Box (v1.0) is a dynamic trend following indicator based on the renowned method developed by Nicolas Darvas. It's designed to identify clear price consolidation ranges and detect decisive breakouts, crucial for positional and swing trading strategies.
This indicator automatically draws and adjusts the consolidation ranges, and includes modern enhancements such as Advanced Retest Confirmation and exposed alert conditions, providing reliable signals for monitoring and acting on trend continuations.
2. Core Features
Custom Display Mode (Lines/Box): Allows the user to toggle the visualization between showing just the Breakout Lines (Lines) or displaying the consolidation area with a filled background box (Box).
Source Selection (Wicks/Body): Users can choose whether the box boundaries are defined by the candlestick wicks (price extremes) or the candlestick body (open/close price). This feature is critical for adjusting sensitivity to market noise.
Dynamic Box Drawing: Draws Darvas boxes automatically by tracking price highs and lows based on user-defined parameters (Bars to Define Range, Max Box Height).
Retest Confirmation: Detects if the old resistance/support line functions effectively after a breakout. When a retest is confirmed, the line is extended and its color changes.
Price Labels (Stable Lock): Displays the highest and lowest box prices, fixed to the left outer edge of the box. This ensures stable visibility.
Progress Labels: Visualizes the current line price and the percentage distance to the closing price on the right side of the box, showing progress toward the next breakout.
3. Trading Strategy: How to Use the Indicator
This indicator is primarily used to identify trend initiation and trend continuation signals.
A. Entry Strategy (Breakout)
Long Entry Action: Consider taking a long entry when the price closes above the Upper Line (Green Line), signaled by a BULLISH BREAKOUT alert.
Signal: Use the BULLISH BREAKOUT alert.
Short Entry Action: Consider taking a short entry when the price closes below the Lower Line (Red Line), signaled by a BEARISH BREAKOUT alert.
Signal: Use the BEARISH BREAKOUT alert.
B. Retest Strategy (Add-on/Confirmation)
Action: When the price pulls back to touch the broken line (signaled by RETEST CONFIRMED), this confirms the break's validity.
Alert: The RETEST CONFIRMED alert is triggered at this moment.
C. Risk Management (General)
Stop Loss: The initial stop-loss is typically set just beyond the opposite side of the broken box. As the trend progresses and new boxes form, the lower boundary of the most recently formed box can be used as a trailing stop for managing risk.
4. Setting Parameters
Line Source (Wicks/Body): Crucial for sensitivity. 'Wicks' tracks price extremes; 'Body' tracks stronger close-to-close movements, ignoring noise.
Bars to Define Range: Defines the calculation period (in bars) for the box.
Cooldown Bars After Breakout: Sets the waiting period after a breakout before a new box can start forming.
Retest Lookback Bars (Phase 3): Sets the maximum number of bars to check for a retest during the cooldown phase.
Max Gap for Retest (%): Defines the maximum percentage distance from the line allowed to confirm a retest (Set to Zero (0.0%) for near-touch detection).
Alert Frequency (Breakout): Allows selection between Continuous and Once per Box for breakout signals.
5. Alerts: How to Set Up the Triggers
This indicator exposes several specific conditions to the TradingView alert panel, allowing you to select the exact event you want to monitor.
Step-by-Step Alert Setup:
Open the Alert Panel on the chart.
In the Condition field, select the indicator's name.
In the Alert Condition field, choose the specific event you want to monitor:
1. ANY DARVAS EVENT (Consolidated)
2. BULLISH BREAKOUT (Individual)
3. BEARISH BREAKOUT (Individual)
4. RETEST CONFIRMED (Individual)
In the Trigger field (Frequency), select your preferred native option (e.g., "Once Per Bar Close" or "Once per bar").
Turtle Strategy - Triple EMA Trend with ADX and ATRDescription
The Triple EMA Trend strategy is a directional momentum system built on the alignment of three exponential moving averages and a strong ADX confirmation filter. It is designed to capture established trends while maintaining disciplined risk management through ATR-based stops and targets.
Core Logic
The system activates only under high-trend conditions, defined by the Average Directional Index (ADX) exceeding a configurable threshold (default: 43).
A bullish setup occurs when the short-term EMA is above the mid-term EMA, which in turn is above the long-term EMA, and price trades above the fastest EMA.
A bearish setup is the mirror condition.
Execution Rules
Entry:
• Long when ADX confirms trend strength and EMA alignment is bullish.
• Short when ADX confirms trend strength and EMA alignment is bearish.
Exit:
• Stop Loss: 1.8 × ATR below (for longs) or above (for shorts) the entry price.
• Take Profit: 3.3 × ATR in the direction of the trade.
Both parameters are configurable.
Additional Features
• Start/end date inputs for controlled backtesting.
• Selective activation of long or short trades.
• Built-in commission and position sizing (percent of equity).
• Full visual representation of EMAs, ADX, stop-loss, and target levels.
This strategy emphasizes clean trend participation, strict entry qualification, and consistent reward-to-risk structure. Ideal for swing or medium-term testing across trending assets.
1m Scalping ATR (with SL & Zones)A universal ATR indicator that anchors volatility to your stop-loss.
Read any market (FX, JPY pairs, Gold/Silver, indices, crypto) consistently—regardless of pip/point conventions and timeframe.
Why this indicator?
Classic ATR is absolute (pips/points) and feels different across markets/TFs. ATR Takeoff normalizes ATR to your stop-loss in pips and highlights clear zones for “quiet / ideal / too volatile,” so you instantly know if a 10-pip SL fits current conditions.
Key features
Auto pip detection (FX, JPY, XAU/XAG, indices, BTC/ETH).
Selectable ATR source: chart timeframe or fixed ATR TF (e.g., “15”, “30”, “60”).
Display modes:
Percent of SL – ATR relative to SL in %, great for M1 (typical 10–30%).
Multiple of SL – ATR as a multiple of SL (e.g., 0.6× / 1.0× / 1.2×).
Panel zones:
Green = “Ready for takeoff” (≤ Low), Yellow = reference (Mid), Red = too volatile (≥ High).
Status badge (top-right): Quiet / ATR ok / Wild, current ATR/SL value, ATR TF used.
Direction-agnostic: Works the same for longs and shorts.
Inputs (at a glance)
Length / Smoothing (RMA/SMA/EMA/WMA): ATR base settings.
Your Stop-Loss (Pips): Reference SL (e.g., 10).
ATR Timeframe (empty = chart): Use chart TF or a fixed TF.
Display Mode: “Percent of SL” or “Multiple of SL.”
Low/Mid/High (Percent Mode): Zone thresholds in % of SL.
Low/Mid/High (Multiple Mode): Zone thresholds in ×SL.
Recommended defaults
Length 14, Smoothing RMA, SL 10 pips
Display Mode: Percent of SL
Low/Mid/High (%): 15 / 20 / 25
ATR Timeframe: empty (= chart) for reactive, or “30” for smoother M30 context with M1 entries.
How to use
Set SL (pips). 2) Choose display mode. 3) Optionally pick ATR TF.
Interpretation:
≤ Low (green): setups allowed.
≈ Mid (yellow): neutral reference.
≥ High (red): too volatile → adjust SL/size or wait.
Note: Auto-pip relies on common ticker naming; verify on exotic symbols.
Disclaimer: For research/education. Not financial advice.
Algo Trading Signals - Buy/Sell System# 📊 Algo Trading Signals - Dynamic Buy/Sell System
## 🎯 Overview
**Algo Trading Signals** is a sophisticated intraday trading indicator designed for algorithmic traders and active day traders. This system generates precise buy and sell signals based on a dynamic box breakout strategy with intelligent position management, add-on entries, and automatic target adjustment.
The indicator creates a reference price box during a specified time window (default: 9:15 AM - 9:45 AM IST) and generates high-probability signals when price breaks out of this range with confirmation.
---
## ✨ Key Features
### 📍 **Smart Signal Generation**
- **Primary Entry Signals**: Clear buy/sell signals on confirmed breakouts above/below the reference box
- **Confirmation Bars**: Reduces false signals by requiring multiple bar confirmation before entry
- **Cooldown System**: Prevents overtrading with configurable cooldown periods between trades
- **Add-On Positions**: Automatically identifies optimal pullback entries for scaling into positions
### 📦 **Dynamic Reference Box**
- Creates a high/low range during your chosen time window
- Automatically updates after each successful trade
- Visual box display with color-coded boundaries (red=resistance, green=support)
- Mid-level reference line for market structure analysis
### 🎯 **Intelligent Position Management**
- **Automatic Target Calculation**: Sets profit targets based on average move distance
- **Add-On System**: Up to 3 additional entries on optimal pullbacks
- **Position Tracking**: Monitors active trades and remaining add-on capacity
- **Auto Box Shift**: Adjusts reference box after target hits for continued trading
### 📊 **Visual Clarity**
- **Color-Coded Labels**:
- 🟢 Green for BUY signals
- 🔴 Red for SELL signals
- 🔵 Blue for ADD-ON buys
- 🟠 Orange for ADD-ON sells
- ✓ Yellow for Target hits
- **TP Level Lines**: Dotted lines showing current profit targets
- **Hover Tooltips**: Detailed information on entry prices, targets, and add-on numbers
### 📈 **Real-Time Statistics**
Live performance dashboard showing:
- Total buy and sell signals generated
- Number of add-on positions taken
- Take profit hits achieved
- Current trade status (LONG/SHORT/None)
- Cooldown timer status
### 🔔 **Comprehensive Alerts**
Built-in alert conditions for:
- Primary buy entry signals
- Primary sell entry signals
- Add-on buy positions
- Add-on sell positions
- Buy take profit hits
- Sell take profit hits
---
## 🛠️ Configuration Options
### **Time Settings**
- **Box Start Hour/Minute**: Define when to begin tracking the reference range
- **Box End Hour/Minute**: Define when to lock the reference box
- **Default**: 9:15 AM - 9:45 AM (IST) - Perfect for Indian market opening range
### **Trade Settings**
- **Target Points (TP)**: Average move distance for profit targets (default: 40 points)
- **Breakout Confirmation Bars**: Number of bars to confirm breakout (default: 2)
- **Cooldown After Trade**: Bars to wait after closing position (default: 3)
- **Add-On Distance Points**: Minimum pullback for add-on entry (default: 40 points)
- **Max Add-On Positions**: Maximum additional positions allowed (default: 3)
### **Display Options**
- Toggle buy/sell signal labels
- Show/hide trading box visualization
- Show/hide TP level lines
- Show/hide statistics table
---
## 💡 How It Works
### **Phase 1: Box Formation (9:15 AM - 9:45 AM)**
The indicator tracks the high and low prices during your specified time window to create a reference box representing the opening range.
### **Phase 2: Breakout Detection**
After the box is locked, the system monitors for:
- **Bullish Breakout**: Price closes above box high for confirmation bars
- **Bearish Breakout**: Price closes below box low for confirmation bars
### **Phase 3: Signal Generation**
When confirmation requirements are met:
- Entry signal is generated with clear visual label
- Target price is calculated (Entry ± Target Points)
- Position tracking activates
- Cooldown timer starts
### **Phase 4: Position Management**
During active trade:
- **Add-On Logic**: If price pulls back by specified distance but stays within favorable range, additional entry signal fires
- **Target Monitoring**: Continuously checks if price reaches TP level
- **Box Adjustment**: After TP hit, box automatically shifts to new range for next opportunity
### **Phase 5: Trade Exit & Reset**
On target hit:
- Position closes with TP marker
- Statistics update
- Box repositions for next setup
- Cooldown activates
- System ready for next signal
---
## 📌 Best Use Cases
### **Ideal For:**
- ✅ Intraday breakout trading strategies
- ✅ Algorithmic trading systems (via alerts/webhooks)
- ✅ Opening range breakout (ORB) strategies
- ✅ Index futures (Nifty, Bank Nifty, Sensex)
- ✅ High-liquidity stocks with clear ranges
- ✅ Automated trading bots
- ✅ Scalping and day trading
### **Markets:**
- Indian Stock Market (NSE/BSE)
- Futures & Options
- Forex pairs
- Cryptocurrency (adjust timing for 24/7 markets)
- Global indices
---
## ⚙️ Integration with Algo Trading
This indicator is **algo-ready** and can be integrated with automated trading systems:
1. **TradingView Alerts**: Set up alert conditions for each signal type
2. **Webhook Integration**: Connect alerts to trading platforms via webhooks
3. **API Automation**: Use with brokers supporting TradingView integration (Zerodha, Upstox, Interactive Brokers, etc.)
4. **Signal Data Access**: All signals are plotted for external data retrieval
---
## 📖 Quick Start Guide
1. **Add Indicator**: Apply to your chart (works best on 1-5 minute timeframes)
2. **Configure Time Window**: Set your desired box formation period
3. **Adjust Parameters**: Tune confirmation bars, targets, and add-on settings to your trading style
4. **Set Alerts**: Create alert conditions for automated notifications
5. **Backtest**: Review historical signals to validate strategy performance
6. **Go Live**: Enable alerts and start receiving real-time trading signals
---
## ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
This indicator is a **tool for analysis** and does not guarantee profits. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always:
- Use proper position sizing
- Implement stop losses (not included in this indicator)
- Test thoroughly before live trading
- Understand market conditions
- Never risk more than you can afford to lose
- Consider your risk tolerance and trading experience
**Past performance does not indicate future results.**
## 🔄 Version History
**v1.0** - Initial Release
- Dynamic box formation system
- Confirmed breakout signals
- Add-on position management
- Visual signal labels and statistics
- Comprehensive alert system
- Auto-adjusting target boxes
---
## 📞 Support & Feedback
If you find this indicator helpful:
- ⭐ Please leave a like/favorite
- 💬 Share your feedback in comments
- 📊 Share your results and improvements
- 🤝 Suggest features for future updates
---
## 🏷️ Tags
`breakout` `daytrading` `signals` `algo` `automated` `intraday` `ORB` `opening-range` `buy-sell` `scalping` `futures` `nifty` `banknifty` `algorithmic` `box-strategy`
*Remember: The best indicator is combined with proper risk management and trading discipline.* Use it at your own rist, not as financial advie
KAPITAS CBDR# PO3 Mean Reversion Standard Deviation Bands - Pro Edition
## 📊 Professional-Grade Mean Reversion System for MES Futures
Transform your futures trading with this institutional-quality mean reversion system based on standard deviation analysis and PO3 (Power of Three) methodology. Tested on **7,264 bars** of real MES data with **proven profitability across all 5 strategies**.
---
## 🎯 What This Indicator Does
This indicator plots **dynamic standard deviation bands** around a moving average, identifying extreme price levels where institutional accumulation/distribution occurs. Based on statistical probability and market structure theory, it helps you:
✅ **Identify high-probability entry zones** (±1, ±1.5, ±2, ±2.5 STD)
✅ **Target realistic profit zones** (first opposite STD band)
✅ **Time your entries** with session-based filters (London/US)
✅ **Manage risk** with built-in stop loss levels
✅ **Choose your strategy** from 5 backtested approaches
---
## 🏆 Backtested Performance (Per Contract on MES)
### Strategy #1: Aggressive (±1.5 → ∓0.5) 🥇
- **Total Profit:** $95,287 over 1,452 trades
- **Win Rate:** 75%
- **Profit Factor:** 8.00
- **Target:** 80 ticks ($100) | **Stop:** 30 ticks ($37.50)
- **Best For:** Active traders, 3-5 setups/day
### Strategy #2: Mean Reversion (±1 → Mean) 🥈
- **Total Profit:** $90,000 over 2,322 trades
- **Win Rate:** 85% (HIGHEST)
- **Profit Factor:** 11.34 (BEST)
- **Target:** 40 ticks ($50) | **Stop:** 20 ticks ($25)
- **Best For:** Scalpers, 6-8 setups/day
### Strategy #3: Conservative (±2 → ∓1) 🥉
- **Total Profit:** $65,500 over 726 trades
- **Win Rate:** 70%
- **Profit Factor:** 7.04
- **Target:** 120 ticks ($150) | **Stop:** 40 ticks ($50)
- **Best For:** Patient traders, 1-3 setups/day, HIGHEST $/trade
*Full statistics for all 5 strategies included in documentation*
---
## 📈 Key Features
### Dynamic Standard Deviation Bands
- **±0.5 STD** - Intraday mean reversion zones
- **±1.0 STD** - Primary reversion zones (68% of price action)
- **±1.5 STD** - Extended zones (optimal balance)
- **±2.0 STD** - Extreme zones (95% of price action)
- **±2.5 STD** - Ultra-extreme zones (rare events)
- **Mean Line** - Dynamic equilibrium
### Temporal Session Filters
- **London Session** (3:00-11:30 AM ET) - Orange background
- **US Session** (9:30 AM-4:00 PM ET) - Blue background
- **Optimal Entry Window** (10:30 AM-12:00 PM ET) - Green highlight
- **Best Exit Window** (3:00-4:00 PM ET) - Red highlight
### Visual Trade Signals
- 🟢 **Green zones** = Enter LONG (price at lower bands)
- 🔴 **Red zones** = Enter SHORT (price at upper bands)
- 🎯 **Target lines** = Exit zones (opposite bands)
- ⛔ **Stop levels** = Risk management
### Smart Alerts
- Alert when price touches entry bands
- Alert on optimal time windows
- Alert when targets hit
- Customizable for each strategy
---
## 💡 How to Use
### Step 1: Choose Your Strategy
Select from 5 backtested approaches based on your:
- Risk tolerance (higher STD = larger stops)
- Trading frequency (lower STD = more setups)
- Time availability (different session focuses)
- Personality (scalper vs swing trader)
### Step 2: Apply to Chart
- **Timeframe:** 15-minute (tested and optimized)
- **Symbol:** MES, ES, or other liquid futures
- **Settings:** Adjust band colors, widths, alerts
### Step 3: Wait for Setup
Price touches your chosen entry band during optimal windows:
- **BEST:** 10:30 AM-12:00 PM ET (88% win rate!)
- **GOOD:** 12:00-3:00 PM ET (75-82% win rate)
- **AVOID:** Friday after 1 PM, FOMC Wed 2-4 PM
### Step 4: Execute Trade
- Enter when price touches band
- Set stop at indicated level
- Target first opposite band
- Exit at target or stop (no exceptions!)
### Step 5: Manage Risk
- **For $50K funded account ($250 limit): Use 2 MES contracts**
- Stop after 3 consecutive losses
- Reduce size in low-probability windows
- Track cumulative daily P&L
---
## 📅 Optimal Trading Windows
### By Time of Day
- **10:30 AM-12:00 PM ET:** 88% win rate (BEST) ⭐⭐⭐
- **12:00-1:30 PM ET:** 82% win rate (scalping)
- **1:30-3:00 PM ET:** 76% win rate (afternoon)
- **3:00-4:00 PM ET:** Best EXIT window
### By Day of Week
- **Wednesday:** 82% win rate (BEST DAY) ⭐⭐⭐
- **Tuesday:** 78% win rate (highest volume)
- **Thursday:**
